UAE overreach in Tunisia to have grave consequences for Libya

For those hoping the end of the Libyan civil war was in sight, previous developments in Tunisia are particularly worrying.

Several months ago Libyan strongman Haftar Al-Khalifa secured Derna, the most conservative city in the country's east. This city, previously taken by ISIS before being driven out by other Islamist militias, served as a severe handicap on the Libyan National Army's ability to drive into either the west or south of the country. Now that the city is secure, Haftar can attack west or south as he chooses.

But in Tunisia in June, the UAE sponsored an attempted military coup. The UAE has long been a supporter of autocracy in the region, supporting Abdul Feteh As-Sisi's rise to power in Egypt, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's rise in Saudi Arabia, the Southern Movement in Yemen, the attempted military coup in Turkey and, of course, Libyan strongman Haftar Al-Khalifa.

The attempted coup in Tunisia will very likely have a drastic impact on how the North African neighbour views developments in Libya in favour of Haftar Al-Khalifa. In short, UAE's funding of an attempted military coup in Tunisia backfired in a classic case of strategic overreach.

This is likely to have grave consequences for Libya. Tunisia views the militias in power in Tripoli and western Libya as a bulwark against UAE-backed autocracy and will be less cautious about Islamist ambitions in the region, spearheaded by Turkey, Qatar and Sudan.

Because of this, it is unlikely that Haftar Al-Khalifa will try and wrest control of western Libya in the short-term. The next target for the Libyan National Army will likely be the country's lawless south.

But even military operations in the south pose problems. Smuggling from western Libya - and, by extension, Tunisia - could give covert support to terrorist groups like ISIS which would keep Haftar distracted in a long, bloody battle for southern Libya at the expense of the west.

Worse still, Sudan, an important partner in the Qatari-Turkish axis, borders Libya in the south. Should Tunisia more actively side with the Turkey, Qatar and Sudan in the Libyan proxy war, as seems likely, terrorism could spike in Libya as it has done in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. For Tunisia, the calculation is likely to be that terrorism is an easier threat to manage than the threat of regime change from their military.

While global attention remains on Iraqi elections, the Syrian civil war and the devastation in Yemen, Libya may unexpectedly heat up and destabilize. This may turn southern and western Libya into terrorist hubs as deadly as Afghanistan before 9-11.