Al-Qaeda and a stalemate in Yemen

It is no secret that the devastating Yemen war is a stalemate.

The Houthis still control the majority of Northern Yemen, the more populous half of the country. The recent threat of operations against Hodeidah, the Houthis' largest port in Yemen, is a strategy by the Saudi-led coalition to give it an edge over the Houthis.

But to break the stalemate, the coalition is trying more than just the threat of operations in Hodeidah. Increasing intelligence reports show that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the largest terrorist organization in the region, has been covertly enlisted against the Houthis in Northern Yemen, even while the UAE leads military offensives against the same organization in the south of the country.

As highlighted in a previous article [see http://jwaverforgotten.blogspot.com/2017/12/yemen-next-islamic-state-update-2018.html] the aim of the tribes in Southern Yemen is to use Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula [or AQAP] to weaken Northern Yemen to such an extent that Southern Yemen will be able to become an independent nation. This requires AQAP to be driven out of the south while also being encouraged to relocate to the north, receiving funding, arms and guaranteed protection from counter-terrorism agencies.

As Al-Qaeda was driven out of Saudi Arabia exclusively into Yemen in 2006, so the coalition hopes to see Al-Qaeda driven out of Southern Yemen exclusively into the north, keeping two enemies of Saudi Arabia - the Houthis and AQAP - at each other's throats.

This would lead Southern Yemen to a status of superiority over Northern Yemen, similar to Pakistan over Afghanistan or Turkey over Syria. This would force Northern Yemen into endless internal conflicts between AQAP, the Houthis and the government, while Southern Yemen continues to consolidate a position of strength with help from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This may even lead Southern Yemen to be allowed to join the Gulf Cooperation Council, leaving Northern Yemen reeling from poverty, terrorism, chaos and more war. Should the Saudi-led coalition's strategy prove successful, Southern Yemen's future looks as bright as Northern Yemen's future looks bleak.

Should AQAP be driven out of Southern Yemen exclusively into the north, Saudi Arabia would have little to fear from the organization as it would be preoccupied in Northern Yemen and turn to destabilize Southern Yemen before Saudi Arabia. But the success of this strategy depends on how permanently AQAP is driven from Southern Yemen, as well as a successful secession of the south, which is still by no means a certain prospect.