The Empire of the United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates, one small nation in the Gulf Cooperation Council, is now the dominant political force of the Arab world.

The UAE is the primary backer for autocracy in the Middle-East. Its funding and influence was first noted in 2013, when the Egyptian military overthrew the Ikhwan government of Mohammed Morsi. Since then the UAE has additionally backed the Kurds in Syria, Haftar Al-Khalifa in Libya and the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen. The UAE is also responsible for the rise of Mohammed Bin Salman, now Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

However, there are signs that the UAE's empire has reached its limit. In December 2015 Libya's Government of National Accord was formed and, earlier this year, Turkey militarily intervened to save the GNA from UAE-backed Haftar Al-Khalifa. Since 2016 in Syria, the Russians have permitted Turkish intervention against the Kurds in exchange for consolidation of the Syrian Government over rebel-held areas.

But the UAE's most ambitious project is its support for the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen. After militarily intervening with Saudi Arabia in support of Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the UAE has diverged from previous policy by using the STC as its proxy in Southern Yemen. This has caused a war within a war: while President Hadi's forces wage war with the Houthis in the north, the STC is waging war with President Hadi's forces in the south.

The outcome most favourable to the UAE in Yemen can be summed up in two consolidations: first, the military, political and economic consolidation of the STC over all of Southern Yemen; second, the consolidation of President Hadi's forces and government solely into Northern Yemen. Then President Hadi would become a pawn of the STC: President Hadi's forces and government would be used to militarily occupy the Houthis' attention in the north, while the STC consolidates its own position politically and economically in the south.

However, it is Turkey which represents the greatest threat to UAE-backed autocracy. Eventually, in Syria, Turkey will be forced to cede control of Idlib and its occupied zone northeast of Idlib - in return, Russia will acquiesce to Turkey's full political control over Libya and a further Turkish invasion of the US-Kurdish zone in northeast Syria. Decimating the Kurds in Syria and Haftar Al-Khalifa in Libya might be enough to guarantee the end of both wars - but it would mean the UAE would lose two of its valuable proxies.

Time, now, is the crucial factor in determining whether or not Yemen will be added to Turkey's list of conquests. Should the Syrian and Libyan conflicts be resolved before the UAE irons out its position in Yemen, Yemen would become a springboard from which the United Arab Emirates would be threatened as never before. But, given the US still has its presence in Syria, the UAE might be able to salvage its position in Yemen before Turkey and Russia reach their expected compromise.