Turkey is strengthening its geostrategic position before being forced to make compromises.
In the last few months, Turkey has defended its position in Syria's Idlib from Russia, Iranian and Syrian incursion, sent crucial supply and aid to Libya's Government of National Accord and, via Turkish charities, has consolidated its position in Yemen, which is embroiled in conflict.
Turkey is no fan of the Trump Administration's policies in the Middle-East. Traditional balance between the autocratic and Islamist halves of the Middle-East has been rejected. Instead, the Trump Administration has thrown its weight behind the autocratic half of the Sunni Middle-East, supporting policies conducive for Israel, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in particular. This has resulted in the rise of Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, support for the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds and acquiescence given to Liban strongman Haftar Al-Khalifa and separatists in Yemen's south.
But against the odds, Turkey is still pursuing its agenda in Syria, Libya and Yemen. Over the tenure of the Trump Administration, Turkey has successfully scaled back US support for the Syrian Kurds and made inroads on autocratic spheres of influence in Libya and Yemen. For those who support autocratic rule in the Middle-East, most worryingly of all is the increasing economic and military ties between Turkey and Russia. Tied together with the coming Cold War between the United States and China, the Turkish and Russian-Iranian spheres of influence in the Middle-East are likely to reach a compromise favourable to China and unfavourable to the United States.
This will likely mean Syria will be resolved in an outcome favourable to Russia and Iran and less favourable to Turkey. Eventually, rebel-held Idlib will have to fall to the Syrian government. In exchange, Turkey will likely occupy the last US-held areas in Syria and be allowed by Russia to liquidate the Syrian Kurds.
Should the fall of Idlib occur, Turkey is likely to have an even larger Syrian refugee problem than it has already. Because of this, Iran, Russia and China are likely to ease the economic fallout. Russia already has significant economic ties with Turkey and has successfully delivered its S-400 missile system there. Though Turkey will likely incur US sanctions for using the S-400 missile system and will also likely be expelled from NATO, China and Iran will step in economically and help ease the pressure of US sanctions. Then Turkey would likely be given the green light for eroding autocratic influence in both Libya and Yemen.
For Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, this is a nightmare scenario. If Turkey falls into the Sino-Russian sphere of influence, allows the Syrian civil war to end and also dominates the Sunni Arab governments of Libya and Yemen, the potential for conflict to be ignited in Saudi Arabia and Iraq is compounded. Conflict between Iran and the United States in Iraq would loom large, and Mohammed Bin Salman would be outmaneuvered in Yemen by its Turkish competitor. Egypt would have a Muslim Brotherhood government to contend with to its west and an unstable Saudi Arabia to its east.
Of all players in Yemen, Turkey has the best chance for negotiating peace between the Iran-backed Houthis and President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi. But should President Hadi turn its back on Saudi Arabia in favour of Turkey, Saudi Arabia will be threatened as never before from its Yemeni border, from Iran and from Qatar. The risk to Saudi Arabia for conflict is greater even than the risk in Iraq.
The timing of US sanctions on Turkey will determine when exactly this nightmare scenario will occur. For Syria, Libya and Yemen, this will likely mean an end to the fighting. For the United States, it will be forced to keep its attention on the Middle-East for many decades to come.
