The Empire of the United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates, one small nation in the Gulf Cooperation Council, is now the dominant political force of the Arab world.

The UAE is the primary backer for autocracy in the Middle-East. Its funding and influence was first noted in 2013, when the Egyptian military overthrew the Ikhwan government of Mohammed Morsi. Since then the UAE has additionally backed the Kurds in Syria, Haftar Al-Khalifa in Libya and the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen. The UAE is also responsible for the rise of Mohammed Bin Salman, now Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

However, there are signs that the UAE's empire has reached its limit. In December 2015 Libya's Government of National Accord was formed and, earlier this year, Turkey militarily intervened to save the GNA from UAE-backed Haftar Al-Khalifa. Since 2016 in Syria, the Russians have permitted Turkish intervention against the Kurds in exchange for consolidation of the Syrian Government over rebel-held areas.

But the UAE's most ambitious project is its support for the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen. After militarily intervening with Saudi Arabia in support of Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the UAE has diverged from previous policy by using the STC as its proxy in Southern Yemen. This has caused a war within a war: while President Hadi's forces wage war with the Houthis in the north, the STC is waging war with President Hadi's forces in the south.

The outcome most favourable to the UAE in Yemen can be summed up in two consolidations: first, the military, political and economic consolidation of the STC over all of Southern Yemen; second, the consolidation of President Hadi's forces and government solely into Northern Yemen. Then President Hadi would become a pawn of the STC: President Hadi's forces and government would be used to militarily occupy the Houthis' attention in the north, while the STC consolidates its own position politically and economically in the south.

However, it is Turkey which represents the greatest threat to UAE-backed autocracy. Eventually, in Syria, Turkey will be forced to cede control of Idlib and its occupied zone northeast of Idlib - in return, Russia will acquiesce to Turkey's full political control over Libya and a further Turkish invasion of the US-Kurdish zone in northeast Syria. Decimating the Kurds in Syria and Haftar Al-Khalifa in Libya might be enough to guarantee the end of both wars - but it would mean the UAE would lose two of its valuable proxies.

Time, now, is the crucial factor in determining whether or not Yemen will be added to Turkey's list of conquests. Should the Syrian and Libyan conflicts be resolved before the UAE irons out its position in Yemen, Yemen would become a springboard from which the United Arab Emirates would be threatened as never before. But, given the US still has its presence in Syria, the UAE might be able to salvage its position in Yemen before Turkey and Russia reach their expected compromise.

In Libya and Yemen, Turkey is on the march

Turkey is strengthening its geostrategic position before being forced to make compromises.

In the last few months, Turkey has defended its position in Syria's Idlib from Russia, Iranian and Syrian incursion, sent crucial supply and aid to Libya's Government of National Accord and, via Turkish charities, has consolidated its position in Yemen, which is embroiled in conflict.

Turkey is no fan of the Trump Administration's policies in the Middle-East. Traditional balance between the autocratic and Islamist halves of the Middle-East has been rejected. Instead, the Trump Administration has thrown its weight behind the autocratic half of the Sunni Middle-East, supporting policies conducive for Israel, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in particular. This has resulted in the rise of Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, support for the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds and acquiescence given to Liban strongman Haftar Al-Khalifa and separatists in Yemen's south.

But against the odds, Turkey is still pursuing its agenda in Syria, Libya and Yemen. Over the tenure of the Trump Administration, Turkey has successfully scaled back US support for the Syrian Kurds and made inroads on autocratic spheres of influence in Libya and Yemen. For those who support autocratic rule in the Middle-East, most worryingly of all is the increasing economic and military ties between Turkey and Russia. Tied together with the coming Cold War between the United States and China, the Turkish and Russian-Iranian spheres of influence in the Middle-East are likely to reach a compromise favourable to China and unfavourable to the United States.

This will likely mean Syria will be resolved in an outcome favourable to Russia and Iran and less favourable to Turkey. Eventually, rebel-held Idlib will have to fall to the Syrian government. In exchange, Turkey will likely occupy the last US-held areas in Syria and be allowed by Russia to liquidate the Syrian Kurds.

Should the fall of Idlib occur, Turkey is likely to have an even larger Syrian refugee problem than it has already. Because of this, Iran, Russia and China are likely to ease the economic fallout. Russia already has significant economic ties with Turkey and has successfully delivered its S-400 missile system there. Though Turkey will likely incur US sanctions for using the S-400 missile system and will also likely be expelled from NATO, China and Iran will step in economically and help ease the pressure of US sanctions. Then Turkey would likely be given the green light for eroding autocratic influence in both Libya and Yemen.

For Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, this is a nightmare scenario. If Turkey falls into the Sino-Russian sphere of influence, allows the Syrian civil war to end and also dominates the Sunni Arab governments of Libya and Yemen, the potential for conflict to be ignited in Saudi Arabia and Iraq is compounded. Conflict between Iran and the United States in Iraq would loom large, and Mohammed Bin Salman would be outmaneuvered in Yemen by its Turkish competitor. Egypt would have a Muslim Brotherhood government to contend with to its west and an unstable Saudi Arabia to its east.

Of all players in Yemen, Turkey has the best chance for negotiating peace between the Iran-backed Houthis and President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi. But should President Hadi turn its back on Saudi Arabia in favour of Turkey, Saudi Arabia will be threatened as never before from its Yemeni border, from Iran and from Qatar. The risk to Saudi Arabia for conflict is greater even than the risk in Iraq.

The timing of US sanctions on Turkey will determine when exactly this nightmare scenario will occur. For Syria, Libya and Yemen, this will likely mean an end to the fighting. For the United States, it will be forced to keep its attention on the Middle-East for many decades to come.

Libya's place in Cold War 2

Libya is an essential cog in the coming Cold War between China and the United States.

Recently, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan sent arms and Syrian militias to support the Government of National Accord in Libya. By doing so, President Erdogan saved the Libyan government from General Haftar Al-Khalifa's forces, which were marching on the capital Tripoli. Such a move was long ago predicted in this blog:

https://jwaverforgotten.blogspot.com/2018/01/after-failures-in-egypt-syria-erdogan.html

In response, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates and France formed an international anti-Turkey alliance in the Mediterranean. Such a move was obviously condemned by Turkey, and it shows Turkish influenced being challenged as never before by western powers.

Prior to Turkish moves in Libya, in Syria, Russian, Syrian and Iranian forces marched on rebel-held Idlib. As a result, several Turkish soldiers in Idlib's Observation Posts were killed: in retaliation, Turkey unleashed a barrage of fire on approaching Iranian and Syrian targets, only to be stopped by a cease-fire deal reached between President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

So far, President Putin has been unable to completely reconcile Turkey to its vision for Syria and, until he achieves this, will be unable to secure victory in Syria. But all President Putin has to do is wait. Turkey is insuring that, eventually, it will have to give in to Russian interests in Syria - even if at a price not entirely palatable to Russia.

The Russian strategy has always been to try and get Turkey on side in Syria. Frustratingly for the international anti-Turkey alliance, Libya is likely to part of a deal between Russia and Turkey. That Russia and Syria are not part of the international anti-Turkish alliance is curious, given President Putin and Bashar Al-Assad have both backed General Haftar against Turkish interest there, and points to a mutual understanding between Russia and Turkey of their ultimate geostrategy in the Mediterranean.

More ominously for western powers, China is likely to weigh in on Middle-Eastern affairs as never before. As Cold War 2 begins between China and the United States, wresting Turkey from the American sphere of influence would greatly change the geostrategy of the entire region in favour of China and Russia. China putting its weight behind Turkey would mean China would also support Turkish moves to dominate all of Libya.

In exchange, Turkey would be able to turn on the S-400 Russian missile defense system, which is compatible with Russian and Chinese military hardware; as the United States sanctions Turkey for such a move, Turkey would receive substantial financial assistance from China. Turkey would then have to give up control of Syria's Idlib and be allowed to defeat the remnants of the PKK in Syria, forcing the United States out of Syria altogether and giving Russia, Iran and Syria their much-needed victory in Idlib.

Such a grand bargain would reverberate throughout the region for many decades to come. In response to such moves, the United States would likely throw its weight behind the international anti-Turkey alliance, and the western bloc of the Middle-East would be formed against the Chinese-led block: China, Russia, Turkey, Libya, Syria and Iran.

Should China, Russia and Turkey iron out their differences in the region, not only would they be able to outmaneuver their western opponents in Syria and Libya: they would be able to prepare for the next round of proxy wars. After a complete US withdrawal from Syria under Sino, Russian, Turkish and domestic pressure, a war between the United States and Iran for control of Iraq becomes more likely. Additionally, to keep Egyptian interest away from a Turkey-dominated Libya, instability could be fomented instead in Saudi Arabia. With Iran and Turkey supporting various rebel forces in Syria and Libya, such forces could be transferred to Saudi Arabia for the ultimate prize.

Should US President Donald Trump continue on his current course in the Middle-East and against China, this is the likely scenario. Ignoring Libya, staying in Syrian oilfields long after the defeat of ISIS and not meeting Turkish strategic interest is likely to cause a cataclysmic challenge to the Trump doctrine on the Middle-East, and is more likely to see victory in favour of Russia and China.