Macron signals openness to Haftar Al-Khalifa

Macron's French Administration has signaled that Haftar Al-Khalifa and the Libyan National Army are part of the solution:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-libya-idUSKCN18E2UU

With all the sabre-rattling going on over Ukraine and Syria between Russia and Europe, it is interesting that some European countries are willing to work with Russian goals for stability, such as in Libya. This willingness would likely benefit Europe enormously, as a stable Libya means less economic migrants from North Africa.

This shows that, in many ways, Emmanuel Macron parallels Obama, in being unwilling to play the Establishment handbook at every step of the way. Macron willing to cede power to Russia in Libya is reminiscent of Obama refusing to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.

This is terrific news for Libya. The Libyan National Army and Haftar Al-Khalifa are certainly stabilizing forces in the Arab country, and France is finally willing to embrace pragmatism to see Arab countries like Libya reach stability.

No planned NATO surge in Afghanistan

In his meeting with NATO partners in Brussels, Trump did not call for a surge of NATO troops in Afghanistan.

Trump did scold allies for not spending their 2% of the nations' budgets on defense and, as a result, did not enunciate support for article 5, which states that the US would come to the aid of any NATO ally attacked. Both NATO allies and Trump stayed quiet on Russia, and only reached agreement on disapproval for Russian action in Ukraine. This likely means that Trump still does not support the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad, though other members of his Administration wish it were so.

They did however reach consensus on NATO putting its resources into the fight against the Islamic State, which suggests Trump's priority is still the utter destruction of ISIS over and above defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Trump's Afghanistan policy is taking longer and longer to get finalized, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson saying it would likely take a couple more weeks. This is good news, as a fleshed-out Afghanistan policy is more likely to bring the war to a necessary conclusion.

However, dangerous parallels are emerging between the Afghan War and the Vietnam War. Unless Trump does something to bring the war to its conclusion, the Afghan War may be lost as shamefully as the Vietnam War was.

Russia and Yemen

I have bad news for Saudi Arabia: Russia is interested in Yemen.

Russia is propagating the awful carnage going on in Yemen, and doing so from a pro-Houthi stance. As America is withdrawing from the Middle-East and being sick of being involved in an endless cycle of wars, Russia seeks to fill the void in strategic countries.

Syria has been Russia's most obvious target, with Russia shoring up Bashar Al-Assad's forces. Russia now has a complete monopoly on Syria, ranging from military bases to even business investments in the country.

Less well known has been the Russian-Egyptian alliance in Libya in support of Haftar Al-Khalifa. They are supporting Al-Khalifa to make him the next Arab strongman and to deny terrorists a safe haven there.

In its telling of the news, Russia has shown support for the Houthis and Ali Abdullah Saleh and want to make sure that Yemen does not fall into the same chaos as Iraq did. Limited by Iraq and Afghanistan, should Russia move to act decisively in Yemen, America will be forced to watch from the sidelines. For America, Yemen - and even Saudi Arabia - is just not worth it.

But Russia is unlikely to act in Yemen for now. More likely is that Russia will play the long game and only intervene after Syria and Libya are stabilized and after Saudi options for Yemen are exhausted.

Such a defeat by Russia for the Saudis would be utterly humiliating, and crush Saudi dreams that Mohammed Bin Salman is anything other than the most foolish leader to have ever ruled the kingdom. Should Russia stabilize Syria, Libya and Yemen and should America stay out of Yemen, Saudi relations with other countries will be irrevocably severed, and instability will creep ever closer to the Arabian Gulf.

Trump's support for Saudi War on Yemen

How much does the Trump Administration support the Saudi War on Yemen?

The Trump Administration says Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is priority number 1, but clearly a Houthi-controlled Yemen (which would be the fastest way to crush AQAP) is also antithetical to Saudi interest, and therefore antithetical to "American interest."

It looks as if Jim Mattis, Trump's Secretary of Defense, has been given the lead regarding Saudi-American relations and Yemen. He maintains that the Houthis are Iran-backed. He also maintains that military pressure on the Houthis could bring them to the negotiating table.

However, their thinking is flawed for a few reasons. First, Al-Qaeda will always exist in Yemen without a strong government, and the only government strong enough to defeat Al-Qaeda is the government controlled by Saleh and the Houthis. Second, Iran only gave weapons to the Houthis after Saudi Arabia started bombing them, so Saudi has brought this dilemma largely on themselves.

Third, it is very unlikely the Saudi campaign will bring the Houthis to the negotiating table - more likely is that Saudi Arabia will be forced to prolong the Yemen conflict to the bankruptcy of their own country, leading Saudi Arabia into the instability its neighbours share.

Trump's support of the Saudi war on Yemen is limited to shared intelligence and assisting Saudi in their airstrikes. However, the Administration is clearly giving more help to Saudi Arabia than Obama did, which is worrying.

Ultimately, it looks as if terrorism will shrink in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan due to Trump policy, but will increase in Yemen and, subsequently, in Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will likely become a monster as large as ISIS was in 2014 and will likely enter Saudi Arabia from the south. Should Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula arrive on Saudi's southern doorstep, it will trigger a wider war in Saudi Arabia. ISIS will come back to life, but instead of in Syria and Iraq, in Saudi's northern, eastern and central regions.

Trump's not perfect. And, so far, Trump's willingness to let Saudi do what it wants in Yemen is more disappointing than anything he has done - except strike Assad's airport in Syria.