Trump's support for Saudi War on Yemen

How much does the Trump Administration support the Saudi War on Yemen?

The Trump Administration says Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is priority number 1, but clearly a Houthi-controlled Yemen (which would be the fastest way to crush AQAP) is also antithetical to Saudi interest, and therefore antithetical to "American interest."

It looks as if Jim Mattis, Trump's Secretary of Defense, has been given the lead regarding Saudi-American relations and Yemen. He maintains that the Houthis are Iran-backed. He also maintains that military pressure on the Houthis could bring them to the negotiating table.

However, their thinking is flawed for a few reasons. First, Al-Qaeda will always exist in Yemen without a strong government, and the only government strong enough to defeat Al-Qaeda is the government controlled by Saleh and the Houthis. Second, Iran only gave weapons to the Houthis after Saudi Arabia started bombing them, so Saudi has brought this dilemma largely on themselves.

Third, it is very unlikely the Saudi campaign will bring the Houthis to the negotiating table - more likely is that Saudi Arabia will be forced to prolong the Yemen conflict to the bankruptcy of their own country, leading Saudi Arabia into the instability its neighbours share.

Trump's support of the Saudi war on Yemen is limited to shared intelligence and assisting Saudi in their airstrikes. However, the Administration is clearly giving more help to Saudi Arabia than Obama did, which is worrying.

Ultimately, it looks as if terrorism will shrink in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan due to Trump policy, but will increase in Yemen and, subsequently, in Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will likely become a monster as large as ISIS was in 2014 and will likely enter Saudi Arabia from the south. Should Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula arrive on Saudi's southern doorstep, it will trigger a wider war in Saudi Arabia. ISIS will come back to life, but instead of in Syria and Iraq, in Saudi's northern, eastern and central regions.

Trump's not perfect. And, so far, Trump's willingness to let Saudi do what it wants in Yemen is more disappointing than anything he has done - except strike Assad's airport in Syria.