Libya's place in Cold War 2

Libya is an essential cog in the coming Cold War between China and the United States.

Recently, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan sent arms and Syrian militias to support the Government of National Accord in Libya. By doing so, President Erdogan saved the Libyan government from General Haftar Al-Khalifa's forces, which were marching on the capital Tripoli. Such a move was long ago predicted in this blog:

https://jwaverforgotten.blogspot.com/2018/01/after-failures-in-egypt-syria-erdogan.html

In response, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates and France formed an international anti-Turkey alliance in the Mediterranean. Such a move was obviously condemned by Turkey, and it shows Turkish influenced being challenged as never before by western powers.

Prior to Turkish moves in Libya, in Syria, Russian, Syrian and Iranian forces marched on rebel-held Idlib. As a result, several Turkish soldiers in Idlib's Observation Posts were killed: in retaliation, Turkey unleashed a barrage of fire on approaching Iranian and Syrian targets, only to be stopped by a cease-fire deal reached between President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

So far, President Putin has been unable to completely reconcile Turkey to its vision for Syria and, until he achieves this, will be unable to secure victory in Syria. But all President Putin has to do is wait. Turkey is insuring that, eventually, it will have to give in to Russian interests in Syria - even if at a price not entirely palatable to Russia.

The Russian strategy has always been to try and get Turkey on side in Syria. Frustratingly for the international anti-Turkey alliance, Libya is likely to part of a deal between Russia and Turkey. That Russia and Syria are not part of the international anti-Turkish alliance is curious, given President Putin and Bashar Al-Assad have both backed General Haftar against Turkish interest there, and points to a mutual understanding between Russia and Turkey of their ultimate geostrategy in the Mediterranean.

More ominously for western powers, China is likely to weigh in on Middle-Eastern affairs as never before. As Cold War 2 begins between China and the United States, wresting Turkey from the American sphere of influence would greatly change the geostrategy of the entire region in favour of China and Russia. China putting its weight behind Turkey would mean China would also support Turkish moves to dominate all of Libya.

In exchange, Turkey would be able to turn on the S-400 Russian missile defense system, which is compatible with Russian and Chinese military hardware; as the United States sanctions Turkey for such a move, Turkey would receive substantial financial assistance from China. Turkey would then have to give up control of Syria's Idlib and be allowed to defeat the remnants of the PKK in Syria, forcing the United States out of Syria altogether and giving Russia, Iran and Syria their much-needed victory in Idlib.

Such a grand bargain would reverberate throughout the region for many decades to come. In response to such moves, the United States would likely throw its weight behind the international anti-Turkey alliance, and the western bloc of the Middle-East would be formed against the Chinese-led block: China, Russia, Turkey, Libya, Syria and Iran.

Should China, Russia and Turkey iron out their differences in the region, not only would they be able to outmaneuver their western opponents in Syria and Libya: they would be able to prepare for the next round of proxy wars. After a complete US withdrawal from Syria under Sino, Russian, Turkish and domestic pressure, a war between the United States and Iran for control of Iraq becomes more likely. Additionally, to keep Egyptian interest away from a Turkey-dominated Libya, instability could be fomented instead in Saudi Arabia. With Iran and Turkey supporting various rebel forces in Syria and Libya, such forces could be transferred to Saudi Arabia for the ultimate prize.

Should US President Donald Trump continue on his current course in the Middle-East and against China, this is the likely scenario. Ignoring Libya, staying in Syrian oilfields long after the defeat of ISIS and not meeting Turkish strategic interest is likely to cause a cataclysmic challenge to the Trump doctrine on the Middle-East, and is more likely to see victory in favour of Russia and China.