Forgotten Middle-East Update - Qatar

Qatar is the way through which instability is likely to rear its ugly head in the Arabian Gulf.

Due to the embargo imposed by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, Qatar's own economy is under threat. While short-term things are unlikely to change in the small Arabian nation, mid-term to long-term the embargo is likely to negatively impact not only Qatar but the surrounding Arabian Gulf region.

The result of such an embargo has been that Qatar has strengthened relations with both Iran and Turkey, both of which are adversities to the four countries involved in the embargo. Through Qatar's current predicament, Iran and Turkey have been brought closer to the Arabian Gulf than ever before.

As the geopolitics of the Middle-East continue to realign, relations will continue to deteriorate in the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the council itself is likely to be disbanded and recreated under a different name - with Qatar excluded. Such a move is likely to benefit Iraq, which may end up swapping places with Qatar and, for Iraq, instead of being the pro-Iranian outcast, may be brought into a new Gulf Council. Qatar would then be the new pro-Iranian outcast, bringing more open hostility from its neighbours than ever.

Before such hostilities are brought to bear in the Arabian Gulf itself, they are likely to be settled in a preliminary proxy war in Libya. (Such a dress rehearsal is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War in the 1930's, which was the prelude to the longer, bloodier conflict between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in the 1940's.) As the conflicts in Syria and Iraq have been winding down, countries like Libya are becoming increasingly unstable. This conflict has pitted autocrats against Islamists - which is the classic UAE/Saudi-versus-Qatar rivalry. As violence continues to recede elsewhere, such hostilities are likely to escalate severely in Libya.

The conflict in Libya would either end in a victory for the autocrats - led by Haftar Al-Khalifa - or a less-likely victory for the Islamists. The only way the Islamists would win in Libya would be if another nation got involved, such as Turkey, either through a direct military confrontation or through the funneling of supplies and foreign fighters from its own land - which was used in Syria - into Libya.

After the Libyan civil war is concluded, either way, instability will arrive at the Arabian Gulf. Should Turkey continue to militarily back Qatar and make sure that the Ikhwan philosophy survives in the Middle-East, eventually the Arabs will no longer tolerate Turkish meddling in Qatar, and a war would ensue between previously American allies - namely, Turkey and Saudi Arabia - which would tear the Arabian Gulf to pieces.

Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salman is facing increasing pressure in his proxy wars in Yemen, Qatar and Iraq (the latter two being economic proxy wars instead of military). Should insufficient progress be made on any of these fronts, the Saudi Crown Prince would have to make a game-changing decision: either more directly fund Al-Qaeda in Yemen to win the war against the Houthis, or militarily occupy Qatar and force regime change. Though former is more likely, Mohammed Bin Salman's own impulsive foreign policy would be wise not to underestimate.