Why Afghanistan is so important to Trump

Of all the Middle-East countries the US is militarily engaged in, Afghanistan is second in importance only to Iraq.

After Iraq, Afghanistan is the most geo-strategic country for American foreign policy. That is the reason America has been in the country so long.

Yet unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is out of the public eye. Trump is focused on defeating ISIS in Syria and Iraq - and he is right to be doing so. However, Afghanistan is incredibly important to Trump for reasons other than simply ISIS:

1) Trump wants to end a Bush war.

There would be nothing quite so sweet for Trump as to succeed in Afghanistan where Obama failed in Iraq. If Trump actually won the Afghan War, he would go down in history as one of the great Presidents - and certainly as a greater President than Barrack Obama.

2) A Strong Afghanistan weakens Iran.

After dealing with the ISIS threat in Iraq and Syria, Trump's next Middle-East task will be quashing Iranian influence. His putting Iran "on notice" has stopped the theocracy from testing ballistic missiles. Beyond that, Trump's goal is to get Iraq out of Iranian influence - an enormous task. He may also try - diplomatically - to get rid of Bashar Al-Assad and replace him with a pro-Russian, anti-Iranian dictator - which will most certainly fail.

But Afghanistan! A strong Afghanistan puts more pressure on Iran to watch their eastern borders as they used to watch their western borders with Saddam Hussein. Trump will have to cede to nation-building in Afghanistan to create a "block" (in his words) against Iran.

3) Russia would like to take Afghanistan back.

Worryingly, Russia has been eyeing influence in Afghanistan on the side of the Taliban. After 16 years of bloodshed, Trump is unlikely to see Afghanistan fall into the hands of Russia.

It is more likely that Trump will allow Russian influence to continue unabated in Syria and Libya - as is currently occurring in Libya and to a lesser extent in Syria - than withdraw American support for Afghanistan. It makes no sense for Trump to give up Afghanistan when he could let Russia use their effort and resources in retaking Syria and Libya, which are less costly for America to lose.

4) Trade is Trump's forte.

Afghani President Ashraf Ghani has tempted Trump with an investment opportunity for America in Afghanistan. See the following article for reference:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-afghanistan-mineral-reserves-235962

The minerals in Afghanistan are worth an enormous amount of money. Trump will not let an investment like this fall flat on its face - not with so much else to lose by not intervening in Afghanistan.



Trump is more likely to engage militarily in Afghanistan than in Syria post-ISIS, Yemen against the Houthis or in Libya. It is just simply too strategic for the US - and, more specifically, Trump - to give up on it.