Sunday, 23 April 2017
What is going on in Libya?
For the Obama Administration, Libya "succeeded" where Syria failed.
In 2011, Obama ordered a "no-fly-zone" in Libya to knock out the Gidaffi's Libyan Government. They succeeded. Unfortunately, most of the government services lynched on Gidaffi's regime, which meant a complete collapse of Libya followed.
By 2014, two governments ended up vying for competition. The first - the legitimate government - uprooted itself and is to this day located in Tobruk. They are the remnants of Gidaffi's regime, backed by the Libyan National Army.
The second government - based in Tripoli - was largely militias allied to the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda. That was their power on the ground.
In 2016, Obama and the European powers tried to create a compromise government between the two groups. This was never going to work, because the Tobruk government wants no Islamism, and the Tripoli government does.
So a new government was formed in Tripoli; the Government of National Accord. This government has even less power than the previous Tripoli government did, and is largely beholden to the same tribes and factions that the Muslim Brotherhood/Al-Qaeda linked government was.
All that has really changed is the legitimate government of Libya was swapped from Tobruk to Tripoli. However, that has not stopped the Tobruk Government from getting stronger.
In recent months, the Tobruk-based government - spear-headed by Haftar Al-Khalifa, a strong man eyeing for complete control of Libya - has gained large swathes of Libyan territory from the Government of National Accord, both in the oil crescent in the north and also in the desert regions of the south.
The Tobruk government has backing of many of the top regional powers - such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia - while the Tripoli government has backing of Qatar, Turkey and Europe - mainly supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Tobruk Government is also allied with Russia. With America refusing to get involved in Libya -for which we must be incredibly thankful - Russia and Egypt are likely to see victory in Libya at the hands of Haftar Al-Khalifa and the Tobruk government, with a peaceful and stable Libya to follow.
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